DHAKA, 
Bangladesh The current 10-day, four-nation tour of South Asia by China's 
prime minister, Wen Jiabao, is at one level a triumphal affair. Here is the 
outwardly modest Wen basking in China's success, spreading the gospel of good 
will to these neighbors whose combined populations equals that of China. Here is 
a China that will give aid, help them escape from poverty, make Asians proud and 
speak up for multilateralism and the United Nations system - articles of faith 
throughout the subcontinent.
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But Wen's tour is also a reminder that 
China's global economic influence is now a factor in relations between the 
states of South Asia in a way that China's ideology never was. It thus presents 
India, anxious both to develop its strategic relationship with the United States 
and be the leader of South Asian economic integration, with awkward balancing 
acts.
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Wen will visit India last but longest, 
flattering Indian egos with a trip to high-tech Bangalore and hearing eloquent 
Indian rhetoric about a new era of Asian cooperation driven by mutual economic 
interests. Trade has indeed been increasing rapidly as China sells manufactured 
goods and buys iron ore from India. Commerce may keep border disputes and 
Beijing's ambiguous attitude to enlargement of the UN Security Council - which 
India hopes to join - in the background.
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But Wen's visits to Pakistan and 
Bangladesh may be at least as significant in suggesting to India that a new 
attitude to its immediate neighbors is needed if the subcontinent is to get back 
on a par with China. Wen reaffirmed the strength of relations with Pakistan 
despite its improved relationship with Washington and past support for the 
Taliban. He was keen, too, to emphasize that South Asian countries should "treat 
each other as equals," a jab at India that went down well in Pakistan and in 
Bangladesh - which feels that it is treated by India as the United States used 
to treat Mexico.
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Bangladesh is particularly in need of 
China's moral support. There is an impression among diplomats here that India's 
recent rapprochement with Pakistan has caused New Delhi's propaganda and 
intelligence machines to turn more attention to the alleged misdeeds of its 
eastern neighbor. On scant evidence, Bangladesh is accused of harboring 
insurgents in India's long-troubled northeastern states and of flooding these 
states with illegal migrants. 
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India has endeavored - without success - 
to persuade the United States that Bangladesh is on the way to becoming a failed 
state of Muslim fundamentalists and assorted gunmen. There is a belief here, not 
confined to nationalist Bangladeshis, that India does not want Bangladesh to be 
successful as it would demonstrate the potential for relatively small homogenous 
states on the subcontinent and would show up the failures of Bihar and other 
adjoining Indian states.
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Bangladesh cannot escape dependence on 
India, which almost entirely surrounds it. It needs more Indian investment and 
cross-border trade to integrate markets. Links to Myanmar, Thailand and China 
will grow but are no substitute. Many Indo-Bangladeshi disputes are petty or 
over matters that neither government fully controls, such as smuggling of goods 
and people. But one big issue could drive Bangladesh to seek much closer links 
with China - the rivers that are its lifeblood.
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India's plans to link river systems 
include diverting water from the Brahmaputra, Bangladesh's single largest water 
source, into the Ganges. Although India is being urged - most recently in a 
World Bank report - to cooperate with its neighbors in sharing waters and 
developing hydroelectric potential, it has a tendency to treat Bangladesh as at 
best a little brother and at worst a vassal state. That's where the Chinese come 
in. The headwaters of the Brahmaputra are in Tibet. Should China thus not also 
be party to water-sharing talks? That is not on New Delhi's cooperation agenda.
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It is clearly not in China's interest to 
be drawn deeply into South Asian disputes. But its prestige and its appearance 
of benevolence, magnanimity and success suggest that the newly confident, 
outward-looking India needs new approaches to its neighbors. Can India learn 
from Wen's triumphant progress through the region that it claims to lead?
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