Thai Storm Clouds Have a Silver Lining
Philip Bowring International Herald Tribune
Wednesday, December 6, 2000
BANGKOK With five weeks before Thailand's general election, it is not clear whether front-runner Thaksin Shinawatra will be allowed to run at all, let alone form a government if his Thai Rak Thai party comes out on top.
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After three years of stability under Chuan Leekpai's Democratic Party-led coalition, the electorate seems bored with the respected but low-key Mr. Chuan, who has been prime minister for all but two years since democracy was restored in 1992. The country may now face prolonged uncertainty, with horse trading between parties and argument before the Constitutional Court. This unappealing scenario could help abort a faltering economic revival.
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There is a silver lining. This is an election where the process matters as much as the result. It is the first under the 1997 constitution, a reformist document that owed its passage to a demand for change caused by the economic crisis. Subsequent liberal pressure ensured that enabling legislation submitted politicians and bureaucrats to new standards of behavior, transparency and oversight.
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Crucial to the outcome is how strictly the new rules, aimed primarily at reducing the power of money and the role of the businessman-politician in provincial areas, will be applied. That, as much as the votes themselves, will determine the composition of the next government, and whether Thailand's parliamentary system becomes more stable and less venal.
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The irony of the effort to bring higher standards to political life is that Mr. Thaksin is one of the nation's richest men, and his wealth derives from telecommunications licenses acquired from the government. His party has shot to the top of polls thanks to massive advertising spending and Mr. Thaksin's effective presentation of himself as a new and businesslike politician - despite his alliance with dubious old-style politicians.
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He has been helped by constitutional changes that will prevent members of Parliament from changing parties in the future. Politicians leaped onto the Thai Rak Thai bandwagon just in time to meet the election registration deadline.
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But Mr. Thaksin still faces the possibility that the National Counter-Corruption Commission will find him guilty of hiding his wealth while a minister in a previous government. That would be unlikely to be confirmed by the Constitutional Court before the election, but it could mean that Mr. Thaksin would subsequently be barred from holding office. If his party comes out on top, he would have to run an unstable coalition through appointees.
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The anti-corruption commission is not to be trifled with. This year it found Interior Minister and senior Democrat Sanan Kachornprasart guilty of hiding assets and disbarred him from office.
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The stance of the commission and the Constitutional Court will remain subject to political pressures, but they will be under close scrutiny by the media and nongovernmental organizations now armed with a Freedom of Information Act that they have been using to good effect.
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The elections themselves will be scrutinized by the Election Commission, which this year proved resolute to the point of being persnickety in enforcing new rules for the Senate election. It is likely that vote buying will lead the commission to demand new balloting in some constituencies.
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Adding to uncertainties are other electoral changes. Voters now have two votes, one for a local member of Parliament and one, accounting for 100 out of 500 seats, for a national list which includes each party's top figures. No one knows whether votes will now be split or whether this system will help reduce the number of parties - 37 are registered for this election but only five are major and another four are significant for coalition-building.
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Another innovation, central counting of ballots, should make the voting process more secret and less subject to large scale vote-buying.
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Concerns about a prolonged period of political uncertainty are real. So are worries that unresolved banking problems, oil prices and a global slowdown will make 2001 a difficult year for the economy. Asset prices remain too high, and nationalist noises from Mr. Thaksin suggest that corporate restructuring could stall under his leadership, with favored businesses being shielded from creditors.
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However, three and a half years after the crisis broke, this election, and the procedures surrounding it, are testimony to Thailand's fundamental stability, and to its ability to reform its institutions. Two steps forward, one step back is the norm. That means many short-term disappointments, but the medium term remains at least as bright as anywhere else in this troubled region.

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