Philip Bowring: India the bully
 
Philip Bowring International Herald Tribune
Tuesday, February 8, 2005
HONG KONG Official India's arrogance has undermined its pretensions to South Asian leadership at a time when prospects for regional cooperation and prosperity had seldom seemed brighter.
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India torpedoed the summit meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, or Saarc, which was to have been held on Sunday and Monday in Dhaka, by declining to attend. "Security considerations" were the official cause for the nonattendance of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, which caused cancellation of the event. The royal coup d'état in Nepal was also widely cited as reason for not proceeding with the meeting. But it is abundantly clear from the press in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh that tension between India and the government of Prime Minister Khaleda Zia in Bangladesh was the fundamental cause of the Indian pullout. Bangladesh has been humiliated and Pakistan, which currently holds the Saarc chairmanship, is annoyed.
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Although this is only a postponement, not a complete breakdown of the summit process, India's move has created much bad feeling.
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The collapse of the summit meeting comes at a particularly unfortunate time. Progress on India-Pakistan rapprochement has been proceeding at least as well as might have been expected and was to have been bolstered by a bilateral meeting in Dhaka between Manmohan Singh and Pakistan's prime minister, Shaukat Aziz. Also on the agenda was the South Asian Free Trade Area, which is expected to be finalized by next year.
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With India and Pakistan now both pursuing outward-looking, market-oriented economic policies and both enjoying strong economic growth, the omens for trade and investment cooperation that would underpin growth for all countries in the region seemed excellent.
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Alas, India seems not to have learned from the example of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that effective regional cooperation is only possible if countries are prepared to give it priority over bilateral disputes. In the case of India and Bangladesh, these can best be described as bickering aggravated by the domestic politics of Bangladesh. In turn these revolve around pro- and anti-Indian parties and personalities: Khaleda, widow of assassinated former President Ziaur Rahman and leader of the anti-Indian Bangladesh National Party, versus her predecessor and bitter rival Sheikh Hasina, daughter of the assassinated independence leader Sheikh Mujib. Hasina heads the opposition Awami League, which is favored by India and which cheered the summit pull-out. Bangladeshi politicians of both parties have a long record of placing party before national interests.
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To be sure, there are serious security issues in Bangladesh, highlighted by the assassination last month of an Awami League politician and former finance minister, A.M.S. Kibria. But political violence is nothing new in Bangladesh. Neither major party can escape blame either for it or for the hartals, politically orchestrated strikes that are used to undermine the legitimacy of elected governments.
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Khaleda's rhetoric has upset India, adding to tensions over various issues. These include Bangladesh's short-sighted refusal to sell its natural gas to India, disputes over the Ganges waters, illegal Bangladeshi immigration into India, smuggling of goods from India into Bangladesh and India's use of Bangladesh as scapegoat for its insurgency and security problems in its northeast states.
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But these are minor spats compared with the importance both of the India-Pakistan rapprochement and the potential for regional economic cooperation. In any event, they are the bilateral ones that are not supposed to interfere with regionwide cooperation. It cannot be dependent on whether New Delhi likes the current (elected) government in Dhaka, or the unelected one in Katmandu.
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Regional cooperation can only happen if India takes the lead, ignores bilateral frictions and is prepared to offer economic opportunities that entice smaller and poorer countries into seeing the benefits of freer trade. In short, India can only lead if it does not engage in the kind of bullying evident in its withdrawal from the Saarc summit meeting.
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