Burma has a long way still to go
 
Philip Bowring IHT
Thursday, May 9, 2002
HONG KONG As a symbol, the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi almost matches the meeting of the two Koreas' Kims two years ago. But, like that meeting, it is a reminder of just how far Burma, once mainland Southeast Asia's most developed and educated country, has to travel to get back on equal terms with its neighbors. There are unsettling parallels between Burma and North Korea. Just as penury and foreign pressure persuaded Pyongyang to show a slightly more friendly face to the South and the outside world, so Burma's rulers have been persuaded by economic difficulties, brought about partly by Western trade sanctions, to appear open to change. What has yet to be established, as in North Korea, is whether the leadership is prepared for the kind of radical if gradual change that would undermine a power and privilege structure in existence for decades. This is not just a question of converting a few generals to the wisdom of social and economic reform and including Suu Kyi and some degree of democracy in the process.
.
Nor is Burma like China or Vietnam, where the ruling party has been the source of change and had sufficient cohesion and public support to make radical alterations to the economic system without losing political control.
.
In Burma, major change must lead to the complete dismantling of an entrenched socialist/military structure of economic and political power.
.
It is possible that the system will self-destruct as squabbles for spoils among the elite create a space in which Suu Kyi can operate. Such dissension was evident in recent arrests of relatives of the former strongman Ne Win. Suu Kyi's popularity and the general discontent with conditions could lead to a repeat of the 1988 uprising, this time with a successful outcome.
.
But do not bank on it. This regime, like North Korea's, has shown an instinct for self-preservation, not least by being useful to China and making accommodations with some of minorities' drug and gem interests. Even assuming the best, that the regime sees the wisdom of accepting changes which would provide some space for democracy and a market economy, the obstacles are immense. Ne Win expelled most of the old commercial class back in the 1960s. The once admired education system long ago fell into disrepute. The educated elite that it formerly produced is scattered all over the world, now probably too comfortable in Perth, Boston or Hong Kong to come rushing back to rebuild the nation should the occasion arise. Burma has survived decades of misgovernment thanks to its natural resources and self-sufficient rural base. It could be rich again. But creating a modern economy the equal of Vietnam's, let alone Thailand's, will take years of rebuilding commercial institutions and norms, as well as injections of capital. One cannot even assume that that is what the people want. Burma has, for whatever historical reasons, a more suspicious attitude to the outside world than Thailand. Ne Win's nationalism, which took the form of turning Burma's back on the world, was deeply rooted.
.
Suu Kyi's strength of character and purpose are not in doubt. But it is not easy to tell what kind of policies and system would emerge should she and her National League for Democracy eventually triumph over the regime.
.
Democracy would not necessarily be much better in dealing with the demands of the various minorities who make up 40 percent of the population. Burma has the biggest minorities problem in Asia, and one linked to drugs and to relations with its neighbors. Democracy and a federal system look like an easy solution, but only on paper.
.
So, rejoice at Suu Kyi's release but recognize the length of the road ahead for her country. International Herald Tribune
< < Back to Start of Article
  Print Article Text Larger Text Small Single Column Mutli Column