HONG
KONG It is hard to find a satisfactory way out of the
Philippines' political crisis. Every avenue seems mined. But there
is still a chance that this catharsis could lead to a change in the
Constitution.
Until the July 8
defection of much of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's cabinet and
calls for her resignation from former President Corazon Aquino and
the Makati Business Club, the least bad option seemed to be for the
president to stay in office - at least until impeachment by the
Congress appeared likely or more damning evidence of ballot rigging
emerged. Arroyo could still make a reasonable case for not bowing
before street protests, unproven allegations or political
opportunism.
But the dubious ouster
of her predecessor, Joseph Estrada, in 2001 has returned to haunt
her. Loss of support from large sections of the elite that
engineered her assumption of power has undercut her biggest claim -
that she could deliver competent government and desperately needed
fiscal reform. Now if she tries to cling to power she is, at best,
likely to be a lame duck for the rest of her term, which still has
five years to run.
Before then Arroyo would
most likely be ousted either by impeachment, military intervention
or the combination of mass protest, judicial and church activism and
withdrawal of military support, which is the mix of forces that
removed Estrada, despite the refusal of the Senate to impeach him.
It might seem best for
her now to fall on her sword in the manner of President Richard
Nixon. But Nixon had a clear and unquestioned successor. Arroyo does
not.
One can, for the moment,
set aside the worries that Vice President Noli de Castro is a
lightweight who was a reluctant candidate and owes his vote-pulling
power to his career as a television presenter. He could rise to the
job. Perhaps an amiable personality would be as effective as
Arroyo's economics lectures in gaining legislative support for
reform. There have been reports of a deal between de Castro and the
ministers who have resigned.
The problem is that if
there are doubts over the legality of Arroyo's election there would
be doubts over de Castro's. With Estrada forces still campaigning
for his return, leftist forces and nongovernmental organizations
hostile to de Castro and ambitious would-be presidential candidates
waiting in the wings, there is no guarantee that a smooth succession
would be possible. The defeated vice presidential candidate Loren
Legarda is determined to oppose it.
The elite groups may
rally round de Castro for now, but there are still five years of
Arroyo's term to go. If Castro's elevation were to be seen as too
divisive, there could be an effort to move to the next in line,
Franklin Drilon, the president of the Senate and the Liberal Party
leader. There would then have to be a new presidential election
within 60 days that could have unpredictable results, not least the
return to power of allies of Estrada. The situation could get
messier yet.
So is there any
possibility of a silver lining? There is one. Former President Fidel
Ramos has advised Arroyo not to be railroaded into resignation but
to offer to step down next year once changes in the Constitution
have been pushed through. Ramos has long been in favor of a shift to
a parliamentary system and a movement in that direction was
attempted late in his presidency but made little headway as it was
seen as a means of prolonging his power. Now, however, after years
of political turmoil and ingrained political corruption there is a
possibility of a consensus forming for such a shift. At the very
least there could be a move to a unicameral legislature. Other
changes being pushed for are a federal system, proportional
representation and strengthening of the party system.
It is doubtful if such
major changes could be achieved in today's highly-charged
atmosphere. They would particularly undercut the power of the 24
senators, an opportunistic collection of individuals often more
interested in self-promotion than good governance.
However, there are ways
of changing the constitution, and reform could be done quite
quickly. The most straightforward is through the election of a
Constitutional Convention. But it is also possible for the two
houses of Congress to form an assembly to propose changes that would
then go to a referendum.
The majority of
Filipinos are believed to be sick of their politicians and would
back changes in the system. But can the politicians set aside their
battles for the spoils of office? It seems unlikely, but today's
impasse is so serious that radical steps to improve a system that
has become an embarrassment to democracy are needed.
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